Did the pilots result in mode shifts?

Mode Use During Oakland Pilot
* differences significant at p < .10, ** p < .05, two-tailed

An important objective of the evaluation research was to understand whether provided services were replacing other modes that might be less safe, efficient, or environmentally friendly.

* differences significant at p < .10, ** p < .05, two-tailed

For example, will people take the train instead of driving their car, or replace a long circuitous bus commute with more direct ride on a train or other mode? This is called mode shift, and is demonstrated in Figure 3. 

Oakland pilot participants did report driving a personal car less compared to the control group. On the other hand, they reported using BART and shared e-scooters more, suggesting some mode shifts did occur. Mode shifts were also observed in Bakersfield, particularly lower use of ridehailing when participants had access to Spin scooters and bikes. Bus use among Bakersfield participants started high at baseline and remained high during the pilot, suggesting the intended free bus passes that were originally planned for the pilot would have been a useful addition.

 

This graphic demonstrates how replacing a more expensive, but subsidized train trip with a bus trip managed to save several car trips, and time for a mother while dropping off her child at school and going to work.
Figure 3. Demonstrates changes in trips when a study participant could afford to take a more direct train ride, rather than a less convenient but cheaper bus trip.

 

Table1. Mode Use during Bakersfield Pilot: Median Days per Week

 
  Before Pilot During Pilot
Ridehail 1-2 days/week 0/1-2 days/week

Driving

 0 0
Passenger 0 0/1-2 days/week
Walking 7 days/week 3-4 days/week
Personal bike/scooter/skateboard 0 0/1-2 days/week
Spin Bike 0 5-6 days/week
Spin Scooter 0 4 
Bus 3-4/5-6 days/week 5-6 days/week

* differences significant at p < .05, two-tailed

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